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2021, a record year

PI’s NAV increased by 32.2% in 2021. All types of investments contributed, with Stellantis taking the lead. Investments reached the high level of €726 million, exclusively in unlisted assets which represent 62% of the Investment GAV. Divestments and dividends received covered most of the financing needs.

Stellantis published very good results confirming the success of the merger. Carlos Tavares presented his 9-year plan to transform the group into a “sustainable mobility tech company”, structured for “all times” with a break-even point low enough to face all situations. He aims to double revenues to €300 billion with a double-digit margin.

Our central valuation scenario takes into account 1/ the strong increase in uncertainties arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which leads us to apply a 50% discount to the consensus price targets for listed companies. 2/ In the specific case of Orpéa, we are retaining the current share price. Beyond the reputational crisis, the profitability of the business model will, in our opinion, remain questionable for a long time. Excluding these elements, our central scenario is based on an annual IRR of 15% for unlisted assets. This results in a potential NAV of €263 per share, i.e. an upside of 26%. The application of a 30% discount instead of the current 45% would generate a substantial upside on the share price.

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Focus on private equity

PI implemented a portfolio construction strategy with a regular annual commitment approach starting in 2014 and then formed a dedicated team. These developments have accelerated since 2017. The group has sown a lot and the value of private equity fund shares has quadrupled since then.

The PI strategy is structured around a limited number of partners with whom the group seeks to build ongoing relationships. The group invests mainly in Europe and the United States in Growth and LBO funds, mainly in the Tech and Healthcare sectors.

PI does not yet report on the performance of its investments. We modeled recent investment flows and expected distributions starting in 2021 over an 8-year period. Based on the average multiples paid and exit levels achieved in private equity over the last few years, we calculated the expected investment flows and distributions. We conclude that the group will benefit in the coming years from repayments in excess of its capital calls, unlike the last 5 years.

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A famous unknown

Peugeot Invest is a structure on the move that has invested massively over the last 5 years to transform itself.

The proportion of unlisted assets has doubled to 1/3 of its total Gross Asset Value (GAV) as of 6/30/21. It should start to enter the harvest phase in 2022. Stellantis (43% of GAV) succeeded PSA with an unmatched risk profile, balance sheet and potential. These 2 factors will transform PI’s earnings profile, whose dividend payout capacity could, we believe, double.

This change is being ignored by the market, which continues to apply a 45% discount to spot NAV, the highest in the European holding universe. Despite a narrow free float (20%), investor perception could change thanks to more active communication and the entry into the harvesting phase of unlisted assets.

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